The gubernatorial race in Meru is gaining momentum, with the recent announcements by Mithika Linturi and Kawira Mwangaza setting pace for an intense campaign season, about four months to the general election.
Four months in a political season is an obviously long, expensive and exhausting journey. Each of the three candidates must persuade voters that they deserve their individual votes, as well as appeal to obvious voting blocks in Meru.
This takes us to the big question. Runningmates. Do they really matter? Or will they?
Well, no matter which model of analysis you employ in a political race, running mates must influence vote choice. And being the latest entrant in the race, Linturi has the benefit of doing and redoing such analysis, checking both the direct and targeted effects of his choice.
He has a golden chance to examine and exploit his competitors’ weak points, as well as make moves aimed at neutralizing their perceived strengths.
First, the Igembe people have severally expressed their desire to be ‘part of’ the next County Government. The kuria ikundi discourse is not mere street talk that can be dismissed by any serious candidate. It’s a serious embodiment of the harsh opinion of thousands of Igembe residents.
Kawira’s choice of a runningmate from Igembe must have been informed by an intention to take advantage of this discourse. Her runningmate has severally been heard mobilizing on the same platform of ‘it’s our turn’.
Kawira would be happy to rake in the Igembe vote, which largely went to Peter Munya’s basket in the 2017 general election. But coming from Igembe, Linturi would obviously go for a runningmate from Imenti or Tigania areas.
Not Tigania
A runningmate ought to shape perceptions to the benefit of the candidate who picked them, which in turn influence vote choice. Generally, the Meru people will be keen to observe whether Linturi’s choice is ‘good-looking’, with qualifications for holding office and taking over as Governor, if necessary.
Picking an experienced, well-qualified running mate will make Linturi the candidate look better to voters — and win a substantial number of additional votes.
However, the whole idea of a runningmate is to win votes among key subsets of voters who share their gender, religion, ideology, or geographic identity.
Of the three frontrunners, two have already revealed their lineups. Kawira Mwangaza opted for Rev. M’Ethingia from Igembe. Kiraitu Murungi retains Titus Ntuchiu from Tigania.
Would picking a runningmate from Tigania benefit Linturi’s bid? Absolutely not.
With the sense of ownership the electorate have towards their immediate neighbors, two runningmates from the same Tigania area, in my opinion, would be to the incumbent’s advantage. It’s not a worthy investment for Linturi’s bid.
Senator Linturi will have to fully utilize the power of three. A runningmate from Imenti would be an obvious incentive for a major rebellion against Kiraitu and Kawira, both coming from the area.
North Imenti Vote
Linturi needs a sure tyranny of numbers, even from a single constituency in Imenti. And that constituency is North Imenti.
Out of 702,480 registered voters in Meru County in 2017, 89,447 were from North Imenti Constituency, the second largest number among the 8 constituencies in Meru County, with Imenti South leading with 107,414 registered voters. Igembe Central followed closely with a total of 83,912 registered voters.
Buuri would easily associate and tag along with North Imenti than any other voting bloc.
The implication is that Linturi’s biggest dilemma right now is how to secure a huge chunk of the North Imenti vote. Simply said, the August 9 gubernatorial race will be won in North Imenti.
Admittedly, Kathuri Murungi’s Senatorial bid may not rake in a significant figure of the Imenti vote to secure the seat. A large section of the much-coveted South Imenti vote will still go to Kiraitu Murungi.
Arguably, a significant fraction of the Tigania vote would still find its way into Linturi’s basket. Again, in both the Munya and Kiraitu regimes, North Imenti has never been rewarded with any significant role in the County Government.
A runningmate from North Imenti will add balance to Linturi’s ticket and greater voter appeal in the entire County.
It would be a weapon of mass destruction to his two opponents, both from Imenti, who would wish to benefit from propaganda that the ‘kuria ikundi’ discourse is all about snatching the government from them.
If Senator Linturi keeps the Igembe vote intact, secures 30% to 40% from Imenti and a negligible fraction from Tigania, he would be declared the next Meru Governor by 12noon on August 9, 2022.
The author is a Social Media Strategist, a Digital Media Expert with interest in Governance and Social Welfare.
